Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? — live odds

Part of Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?· see all 10 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" is trading at a 10% implied probability, with YES at 10¢ and NO at 91¢. $74K has changed hands so far, $3 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

10%

implied probability

YES 10¢NO 91¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

24h volume

$74K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±15.8¢ swing band
44d ago
Odds swing
83¢ → 66¢ (-17¢ in 15 min)
44d ago
High volatility
±16¢ swing band
44d ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 87¢ (+17¢ in 15 min)
44d ago
High volatility
±13.2¢ swing band
44d ago
Odds swing
16¢ → 5¢ (-11¢ in 15 min)
44d ago
High volatility
±15.7¢ swing band
44d ago
Odds swing
79¢ → 19¢ (-60¢ in 15 min)
44d ago
High volatility
±18¢ swing band
44d ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 66¢ (+62¢ in 15 min)
44d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.