Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? — live odds

Part of Next French Presidential Election· see all 43 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?" is trading at a 47% implied probability, with YES at 47¢ and NO at 53¢. $4.1M has changed hands so far, $59K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by April 19, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

47%

implied probability

YES 47¢NO 53¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$59K

24h volume

$4.1M

total volume

Apr 19, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±18.7¢ swing band
122d ago
Odds swing
34¢ → 5¢ (-29¢ in 15 min)
122d ago
High volatility
±30.2¢ swing band
122d ago
Odds swing
34¢ → 9¢ (-25¢ in 15 min)
122d ago
Odds swing
97¢ → 70¢ (-27¢ in 15 min)
122d ago
Odds swing
6¢ → 71¢ (+65¢ in 15 min)
122d ago
High volatility
±18.9¢ swing band
122d ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 72¢ (+70¢ in 15 min)
122d ago
High volatility
±25.3¢ swing band
122d ago
Odds swing
6¢ → 72¢ (+66¢ in 15 min)
122d ago

How this market resolves

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).