Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — live odds

Part of Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028· see all 51 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $17.5M has changed hands so far, $3K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 7, 2028. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 3¢NO 97¢

recent price

+38¢ over the window

+38¢

24h change

$3K

24h volume

$17.5M

total volume

Nov 7, 2028

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±34.7¢ swing band
3m ago
Odds swing
60¢ → 98¢ (+38¢ in 15 min)
3m ago
High volatility
±19.6¢ swing band
18m ago
Odds swing
98¢ → 60¢ (-38¢ in 15 min)
18m ago
High volatility
±25.3¢ swing band
33m ago
Odds swing
94¢ → 21¢ (-73.1¢ in 15 min)
33m ago
High volatility
±27.1¢ swing band
48m ago
Odds swing
43¢ → 94¢ (+51¢ in 15 min)
48m ago
High volatility
±38.9¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
94¢ → 80¢ (-14.1¢ in 15 min)
1h ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.