Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — live odds
"Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" is trading at a 1% implied probability, with YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢. $856K has changed hands so far, $856K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 4, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
1%
implied probability
recent price
+1¢ over the window
+1¢
24h change
$856K
24h volume
$856K
total volume
Oct 4, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?
The market currently prices YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢, an implied probability of 1% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by October 4, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$856K has been traded in total, $856K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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