Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? — live odds

Part of Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?· see all 16 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?" is trading at a 37% implied probability, with YES at 37¢ and NO at 64¢. $214K has changed hands so far, $34K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

37%

implied probability

YES 37¢NO 64¢

recent price

-17¢ over the window

-17¢

24h change

$34K

24h volume

$214K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±8.3¢ swing band
142d ago
Odds swing
71¢ → 65¢ (-6¢ in 15 min)
142d ago
High volatility
±7.3¢ swing band
142d ago
Odds swing
35¢ → 85¢ (+50¢ in 15 min)
142d ago
High volatility
±51¢ swing band
142d ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 63¢ (+61¢ in 15 min)
142d ago
High volatility
±6.2¢ swing band
142d ago
Odds swing
34¢ → 65¢ (+31¢ in 15 min)
142d ago
High volatility
±15.9¢ swing band
142d ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 23¢ (+20¢ in 15 min)
142d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.