Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — live odds

Part of Brazil Presidential Election· see all 17 outcomes →📲 Open in app

implied probability

YES 2¢NO 98¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$17K

24h volume

$5.0M

total volume

Oct 4, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±22.2¢ swing band
19d ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 79¢ (+77.2¢ in 15 min)
19d ago
High volatility
±26.5¢ swing band
31d ago
High volatility
±14.3¢ swing band
31d ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 30¢ (+29.8¢ in 15 min)
31d ago
High volatility
±25.6¢ swing band
31d ago
Volume spike
$49 traded — 723.1× the average
31d ago
High volatility
±25¢ swing band
31d ago
Odds swing
35¢ → 80¢ (+44.9¢ in 15 min)
31d ago
High volatility
±38.3¢ swing band
31d ago

How this market resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).