Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027? — live odds

Part of Will Russia invade another country by...?· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?" is trading at a 19% implied probability, with YES at 19¢ and NO at 81¢. $47K has changed hands so far, $36K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

19%

implied probability

YES 19¢NO 81¢

recent price

—

24h change

$36K

24h volume

$47K

total volume

Jan 1, 2028

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.