Will Russia invade another country in 2026? — live odds

Part of Will Russia invade another country by...?· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Russia invade another country in 2026?" is trading at a 3% implied probability, with YES at 3¢ and NO at 97¢. $648K has changed hands so far, $1K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 3¢NO 97¢

recent price

-2¢ over the window

-2¢

24h change

$1K

24h volume

$648K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.