Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? — live odds

Part of Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?· see all 3 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?" is trading at a 45% implied probability, with YES at 45¢ and NO at 55¢. $40K has changed hands so far, $12 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by June 30, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

45%

implied probability

YES 45¢NO 55¢

recent price

+1¢ over the window

+1¢

24h change

$12

24h volume

$40K

total volume

Jun 30, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.