Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? — live odds
"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?" is trading at a 5% implied probability, with YES at 5¢ and NO at 96¢. $893K has changed hands so far, $33K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
5%
implied probability
recent price
-1¢ over the window
-1¢
24h change
$33K
24h volume
$893K
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 5¢ and NO at 96¢, an implied probability of 5% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$893K has been traded in total, $33K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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