Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? — live odds

Part of Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?· see all 10 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" is trading at a 8% implied probability, with YES at 8¢ and NO at 93¢. $279K has changed hands so far, $601 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 8¢NO 93¢

recent price

-4¢ over the window

-4¢

24h change

$601

24h volume

$279K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±30.2¢ swing band
45d ago
Odds swing
62¢ → 6¢ (-56¢ in 15 min)
45d ago
High volatility
±33.1¢ swing band
45d ago
Odds swing
71¢ → 61¢ (-10¢ in 15 min)
45d ago
High volatility
±33.1¢ swing band
45d ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 6¢ (-64¢ in 15 min)
45d ago
High volatility
±26.3¢ swing band
45d ago
High volatility
±30.2¢ swing band
45d ago
Odds swing
58¢ → 63¢ (+5¢ in 15 min)
45d ago
High volatility
±5¢ swing band
45d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.