Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? — final odds

Resolved YES · July 31, 2026Final price 100¢ YES — the market gave this a 100% implied probability.

"Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?" resolved YES on July 31, 2026 at a final price of 100¢ YES — a 100% implied probability — after $126K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

100%

implied probability

YES 100¢NO 0¢

recent price

+100¢ over the window

+100¢

24h change

$27K

24h volume

$126K

total volume

Jul 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±37¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
10¢ → 88¢ (+78¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±19.8¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
51¢ → 40¢ (-11¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±22.6¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
40¢ → 30¢ (-10¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±24.3¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
10¢ → 60¢ (+50¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±12¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
50¢ → 60¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)
7d ago

How this market resolves

If the 13th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Quick answers

How did "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?" resolve?

This market resolved YES on July 31, 2026. Its final traded price was 100¢ YES.

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 100¢ — an implied probability of 100%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.