Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026? — live odds

Part of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?· see all 6 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?" is trading at a 22% implied probability, with YES at 22¢ and NO at 79¢. $6K has changed hands so far, $186 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 16, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

22%

implied probability

YES 22¢NO 79¢

recent price

+34¢ over the window

+34¢

24h change

$186

24h volume

$6K

total volume

Nov 16, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±9.6¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
9¢ → 21¢ (+12¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
Odds swing
21¢ → 10¢ (-11¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±6.7¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
10¢ → 20¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±9.7¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
9¢ → 22¢ (+12.5¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±8.3¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
10¢ → 20¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±11.2¢ swing band
7d ago

How this market resolves

If the 15th SpaceX Starship flight test lifts off from its launch pad by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Liftoff is defined as the vehicle rising off the launch mount under its own power; a static fire, a hold, or an abort after ignition does not count. Any subsequent anomaly after liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.