Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? — live odds

Part of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?· see all 6 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?" is trading at a 72% implied probability, with YES at 72¢ and NO at 28¢. $10K has changed hands so far, $221 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 1, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

72%

implied probability

YES 72¢NO 28¢

recent price

+72¢ over the window

+72¢

24h change

$221

24h volume

$10K

total volume

Dec 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±14.9¢ swing band
6m ago
Volume spike
$5 traded — 21.4× the average
9m ago
High volatility
±20.2¢ swing band
21m ago
Odds swing
70¢ → 12¢ (-58¢ in 15 min)
39m ago
High volatility
±33.5¢ swing band
1h ago
Odds swing
75¢ → 98¢ (+23¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
Odds swing
5¢ → 72¢ (+67¢ in 15 min)
1h ago
High volatility
±21.7¢ swing band
2h ago
Odds swing
69¢ → 23¢ (-46¢ in 15 min)
2h ago
High volatility
±19.2¢ swing band
2h ago

How this market resolves

If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.