Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026? — live odds

Part of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?· see all 6 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at — and NO at —. $15K has changed hands so far, and the market is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

implied probability

YES —NO —

recent price

-47¢ over the window

-47¢

24h change

—

24h volume

$15K

total volume

Nov 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±30.4¢ swing band
4d ago
High volatility
±11.9¢ swing band
4d ago
Odds swing
2¢ → 96¢ (+94.2¢ in 15 min)
4d ago
High volatility
±12.8¢ swing band
4d ago
High volatility
±12.1¢ swing band
4d ago
High volatility
±40.3¢ swing band
4d ago
High volatility
±18.3¢ swing band
4d ago

How this market resolves

If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.