Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? — live odds
2%
implied probability
recent price
-1¢ over the window
-1¢
24h change
$9K
24h volume
$3.3M
total volume
Sep 30, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?"?
The market currently prices YES at 2¢ and NO at 98¢, an implied probability of 2% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by September 30, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$3.3M has been traded in total, $9K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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