Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? — live odds

Part of Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?" is trading at a 1% implied probability, with YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢. $4.6M has changed hands so far, $10K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 1, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

implied probability

YES 1¢NO 99¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$10K

24h volume

$4.6M

total volume

Oct 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.