Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — live odds

Part of Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?· see all 7 outcomes →📲 Open in app

14%

implied probability

YES 14¢NO 86¢

recent price

+7¢ over the window

+7¢

24h change

$93

24h volume

$226K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±32.4¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 99¢ (+88¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±15.6¢ swing band
7d ago
High volatility
±47.6¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
5¢ → 99¢ (+94¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±45.1¢ swing band
7d ago
High volatility
±46.2¢ swing band
19d ago
High volatility
±26.1¢ swing band
19d ago
Odds swing
46¢ → 13¢ (-33¢ in 15 min)
19d ago
High volatility
±35.7¢ swing band
30d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.