Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? — live odds
"Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?" is trading at a 11% implied probability, with YES at 11¢ and NO at 89¢. $417K has changed hands so far, $47 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.
11%
implied probability
recent price
-1¢ over the window
-1¢
24h change
$47
24h volume
$417K
total volume
Jan 1, 2027
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 14d ago
High volatility
±10¢ swing band
- 14d ago
Odds swing
19¢ → 99¢ (+80¢ in 15 min)
- 14d ago
High volatility
±41.3¢ swing band
- 14d ago
High volatility
±10.2¢ swing band
- 14d ago
Odds swing
14¢ → 31¢ (+17¢ in 15 min)
- 14d ago
High volatility
±32.9¢ swing band
- 43d ago
High volatility
±4.6¢ swing band
- 43d ago
Odds swing
28¢ → 4¢ (-24¢ in 15 min)
- 43d ago
High volatility
±5.8¢ swing band
- 43d ago
Odds swing
21¢ → 1¢ (-20¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 11¢ and NO at 89¢, an implied probability of 11% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
How much has been traded on this market?
$417K has been traded in total, $47 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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