Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? — live odds
1%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
$400
24h volume
$140K
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 9d ago
High volatility
±19.9¢ swing band
- 9d ago
High volatility
±26.2¢ swing band
- 9d ago
Odds swing
63¢ → 17¢ (-46.8¢ in 15 min)
- 9d ago
High volatility
±20.6¢ swing band
- 9d ago
Odds swing
8¢ → 73¢ (+65¢ in 15 min)
- 9d ago
High volatility
±7.6¢ swing band
- 9d ago
Odds swing
1¢ → 90¢ (+88.6¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢, an implied probability of 1% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$140K has been traded in total, $400 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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