
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? — final odds
"Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?" resolved NO on August 10, 2026 at a final price of 0¢ YES — a 0% implied probability — after $41K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.
0%
implied probability
recent price
-1¢ over the window
-1¢
24h change
$40K
24h volume
$41K
total volume
Aug 10, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Quick answers
How did "Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?" resolve?
This market resolved NO on August 10, 2026. Its final traded price was 0¢ YES.
What did the market predict?
Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at 0¢ — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
How much was traded on this market?
$41K was traded over the market's lifetime.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app
Related Science markets
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
4%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
6%
Human moon landing in 2026?
1%
New pandemic in 2026?
7%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
6%
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
0%