Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? live odds

"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" is trading at a 48% implied probability, with YES at 48¢ and NO at 52¢. $22.6M has changed hands so far, $1.4M of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 16, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

48%

implied probability

YES 48¢NO 52¢

recent price

+25¢ over the window

+25¢

24h change

$1.4M

24h volume

$22.6M

total volume

Sep 16, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±7¢ swing band

    12m ago
  • Odds swing

    37¢ → 51¢ (+14¢ in 15 min)

    12m ago
  • High volatility

    ±8.5¢ swing band

    27m ago
  • High volatility

    ±4.8¢ swing band

    42m ago
  • Odds swing

    45¢ → 55¢ (+10¢ in 15 min)

    42m ago
  • High volatility

    ±21.8¢ swing band

    1h ago
  • Odds swing

    99¢ → 51¢ (-48¢ in 15 min)

    1h ago
  • Volume spike

    $10,000 traded — 17.4× the average

    1h ago
  • High volatility

    ±4.2¢ swing band

    1h ago
  • High volatility

    ±4.4¢ swing band

    2h ago
How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?"?

The market currently prices YES at 48¢ and NO at 52¢, an implied probability of 48% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by September 16, 2026.

How much has been traded on this market?

$22.6M has been traded in total, $1.4M of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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