TL;DR
- 🐋 A $61K whale buy hit the Clarity Act market, with muted price impact.
- Fed interest rate hike odds jumped 59¢ after significant whale activity.
- The new "Variational FDV" market climbed 38¢ post-launch, pricing a $1B valuation.
📈 The big moves
| Market | Move | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Will Caliste Win the LEC 2026 Summer Split MVP? | ▼ -49¢ | 21¢ (21%) |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | ▼ -44¢ | 27¢ (27%) |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in September? | ▼ -42.5¢ | 5.5¢ (5.5%) |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | ▲ +38¢ | 57¢ (57%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | ▲ +35.5¢ | 47.5¢ (47.5%) |
The market for "Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?" saw a significant 38¢ gain, reaching 57¢. This market centers on the valuation of a new token, with the move indicating increasing confidence in it reaching a $1B fully diluted valuation shortly after launch. For more insights on how these metrics influence sentiment in crypto prediction markets, see our guides.
🐋 Whale watch
A major BUY of $61,110 landed on the "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" market, with the price following only 3¢. This indicates the market largely absorbed the large trade. Separately, a $45,342 BUY hit the "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" market, pushing its price down 59¢. This implies an increased expectation for a Fed rate hike. Understanding such moves can be key to whale watching guide.
📊 Volume spikes
| Market | Volume | vs average |
|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | $61,110 | 548.2× |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 13? | $1,938 | 44.2× |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 13? | $1,031 | 16.3× |
The "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" market experienced a dramatic 548.2x surge in volume, coinciding with the large whale activity mentioned above. This signifies a concentrated period of trading around the political outcome.
🗓️ Resolving soon
Several sports markets are closing today, including multiple games from LoL (Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend) and Counter-Strike (G2 vs Legacy) playoff matches. Political markets such as "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?" and "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?" are also nearing their resolution dates. Stay on top of Fed and macro odds with PolyWatch.
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