Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — live odds
1%
implied probability
recent price
+1¢ over the window
+1¢
24h change
$13K
24h volume
$5.9M
total volume
Nov 7, 2028
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 30d ago
High volatility
±13.1¢ swing band
- 30d ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 44¢ (+43.9¢ in 15 min)
- 30d ago
High volatility
±8.9¢ swing band
- 30d ago
Odds swing
44¢ → 90¢ (+46¢ in 15 min)
- 30d ago
High volatility
±34.2¢ swing band
- 30d ago
High volatility
±34.5¢ swing band
- 32d ago
High volatility
±21.4¢ swing band
- 32d ago
Odds swing
60¢ → 1¢ (-59¢ in 15 min)
- 32d ago
High volatility
±33.4¢ swing band
- 32d ago
Odds swing
12¢ → 1¢ (-10.8¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?
The market currently prices YES at 1¢ and NO at 99¢, an implied probability of 1% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by November 7, 2028.
How much has been traded on this market?
$5.9M has been traded in total, $13K of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
Get alerted when this market moves
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