Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027? — live odds
"Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" is trading at a 6% implied probability, with YES at 6¢ and NO at 94¢. $466K has changed hands so far, and the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.
6%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
—
24h volume
$466K
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?"?
The market currently prices YES at 6¢ and NO at 94¢, an implied probability of 6% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$466K has been traded in total, — of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.
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