Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31? — live odds

Part of Will US withdraw from NATO by...?· see all 2 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31?" is trading at a 83% implied probability, with YES at 83¢ and NO at 17¢. $3K has changed hands so far, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 31, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this politics market in real time.

83%

implied probability

YES 83¢NO 17¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

—

24h volume

$3K

total volume

Aug 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±7.5¢ swing band
11d ago
High volatility
±7.6¢ swing band
11d ago
Odds swing
74¢ → 94¢ (+20¢ in 15 min)
11d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.