TL;DR
- 🐋 $41K whale buy impacts US-Iran invasion odds with a 66¢ swing.
- Clarity Act market drops sharply, shedding 50¢ in price.
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade" market sees 87x average volume.
📈 The big moves
| Market | Move | Now | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | ▼ -50¢ | 20¢ (20%) | $0 |
| LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs | ▼ -38.5¢ | 3¢ (3%) | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | ▲ +30¢ | 58.5¢ (58.5%) | $0 |
| LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers - Game 4 Winner | ▼ -30¢ | 4.5¢ (4.5%) | $0 |
| Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #7 Play-In | ▼ -29¢ | 23.5¢ (23.5%) | $0 |
The market for whether the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law in 2026 saw the largest move of the day, with YES odds dropping 50¢ to 20¢ (20%). This political market, often repricing legislative sentiment, is set to resolve at year-end. Understanding how these shifts reflect broader sentiment can be key to how to read Polymarket effectively.
🐋 Whale watch
A significant BUY of $41,345.53 landed in the 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?' market, with a notable 66¢ price drop following the trade. Separately, a $25,000 SELL hit the 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?' market, causing a 97.8¢ price decline. These movements suggest market participants are actively repricing geopolitical risks. For more insights on significant positions, consult our whale watching guide.
📊 Volume spikes
| Market | Volume | vs average |
|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | $8,000 | 87.1× |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | $2.08 | 61.6× |
| Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August? | $400 | 23.6× |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | $166.67 | 15.4× |
Volume surged in several markets today, reflecting intensified interest. The 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?' market recorded $8,000 in volume, an 87.1x increase over its average. Additionally, with Elon Musk tweet markets seeing significant price action among the top movers, the Elon Musk tweet count tracker is a relevant resource for tracking related activity.
🗓️ Resolving soon
Several markets are nearing resolution. The 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?' market closes tomorrow, August 18. Additionally, various Florida Governor nomination markets, including those for James Fishback, Jay Collins, and Byron Donalds, will resolve tomorrow. The political landscape also features prominently, with these races on the horizon; for more insights on such events, see our election betting odds section.
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