Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 19? live odds

"Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 19?" is trading at a 64% implied probability, with YES at 64¢ and NO at 37¢. $7K has changed hands so far, $4K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by August 19, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

64%

implied probability

YES 64¢NO 37¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$4K

24h volume

$7K

total volume

Aug 19, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±48.3¢ swing band

    2m ago
  • Odds swing

    31¢ → 62¢ (+31¢ in 15 min)

    2m ago
  • Volume spike

    $12 traded — 3.9× the average

    9m ago
  • High volatility

    ±56.6¢ swing band

    18m ago
  • Odds swing

    85¢ → 3¢ (-82¢ in 15 min)

    18m ago
  • High volatility

    ±31.7¢ swing band

    33m ago
  • Odds swing

    55¢ → 23¢ (-32¢ in 15 min)

    33m ago
  • High volatility

    ±46.7¢ swing band

    48m ago
  • Odds swing

    60¢ → 3¢ (-57¢ in 15 min)

    48m ago
  • Volume spike

    $40 traded — 13.3× the average

    1h ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 19?"?

The market currently prices YES at 64¢ and NO at 37¢, an implied probability of 64% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by August 19, 2026. The stated resolution source is https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.

How much has been traded on this market?

$7K has been traded in total, $4K of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

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