Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on September 5? live odds

"Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on September 5?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢. $1K has changed hands so far, $46 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 5, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

0%

implied probability

YES NO 100¢

recent price

-2¢ over the window

-2¢

24h change

$46

24h volume

$1K

total volume

Sep 5, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

  • High volatility

    ±8.7¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±12.9¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    100¢ → 16¢ (-84.1¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • High volatility

    ±12.5¢ swing band

    1d ago
  • Odds swing

    58¢ → 16¢ (-41.9¢ in 15 min)

    1d ago
  • conviction signal

    1d ago
How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Quick answers

What are the current odds of "Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on September 5?"?

The market currently prices YES at 0¢ and NO at 100¢, an implied probability of 0% that the answer is yes.

When does this market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve by September 5, 2026. The stated resolution source is https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd.

How much has been traded on this market?

$1K has been traded in total, $46 of it in the last 24 hours.

Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.

Get alerted when this market moves

Eleven detectors watch this market around the clock. The app pings you on the whale trade, the odds swing, the volume spike — the moment they happen.

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Already have PolyWatch? Open this market in the app

Related Science markets