Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? — live odds

Part of Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?· see all 7 outcomes →📲 Open in app

implied probability

YES 0¢NO 100¢

recent price

-4¢ over the window

-4¢

24h change

$13K

24h volume

$124K

total volume

Jul 30, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±39.6¢ swing band
8d ago
High volatility
±12¢ swing band
8d ago
High volatility
±10.3¢ swing band
9d ago
Odds swing
73¢ → 99¢ (+25.8¢ in 15 min)
9d ago
High volatility
±32.2¢ swing band
9d ago
High volatility
±65.4¢ swing band
23d ago
High volatility
±70.3¢ swing band
23d ago
Odds swing
90¢ → 1¢ (-89¢ in 15 min)
23d ago
High volatility
±70¢ swing band
23d ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 1¢ (-98¢ in 15 min)
23d ago

How this market resolves

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.