Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? — final odds

This market has ended · July 30, 2026Final price — YES — the market gave this a 0% implied probability.

"Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?" resolved on July 30, 2026 at a final price of — YES — a 0% implied probability — after $124K in total trading volume. The full odds history and the radar signals that moved it are below.

implied probability

YES —NO —

recent price

—

24h change

$13K

24h volume

$124K

total volume

Jul 30, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±39.6¢ swing band
57d ago
High volatility
±12¢ swing band
57d ago
High volatility
±10.3¢ swing band
58d ago
Odds swing
73¢ → 99¢ (+25.8¢ in 15 min)
58d ago
High volatility
±32.2¢ swing band
58d ago
High volatility
±65.4¢ swing band
72d ago
High volatility
±70.3¢ swing band
72d ago
Odds swing
90¢ → 1¢ (-89¢ in 15 min)
72d ago
High volatility
±70¢ swing band
72d ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 1¢ (-98¢ in 15 min)
72d ago

How this market resolves

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Quick answers

How did "Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?" resolve?

This market ended on July 30, 2026 with a final traded price of — YES (0% implied probability).

What did the market predict?

Before settling, the market priced the YES outcome at — — an implied probability of 0%. Comparing final odds with outcomes across markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.