Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15? — live odds

Part of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14· see all 7 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?" is trading at a 0% implied probability, with YES at — and NO at —. $30K has changed hands so far, $1K of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 16, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

implied probability

YES —NO —

recent price

—

24h change

$1K

24h volume

$30K

total volume

Sep 16, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.