Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? — live odds

Part of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14· see all 7 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?" is trading at a 88% implied probability, with YES at 88¢ and NO at 12¢. $23K has changed hands so far, $51 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by October 1, 2026. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

88%

implied probability

YES 88¢NO 12¢

recent price

-8¢ over the window

-8¢

24h change

$51

24h volume

$23K

total volume

Oct 1, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±13.1¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
100¢ → 84¢ (-15.8¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±35¢ swing band
7d ago
High volatility
±31.6¢ swing band
7d ago
Odds swing
89¢ → 100¢ (+10.7¢ in 15 min)
7d ago
High volatility
±17.3¢ swing band
16d ago
Odds swing
55¢ → 96¢ (+41.1¢ in 15 min)
16d ago
High volatility
±23.8¢ swing band
17d ago
High volatility
±21.3¢ swing band
27d ago
High volatility
±42.7¢ swing band
27d ago

How this market resolves

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.