Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode? — live odds

Part of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14· see all 7 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?" is trading at a 83% implied probability, with YES at 83¢ and NO at 17¢. $27K has changed hands so far, and the market is scheduled to resolve by July 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

83%

implied probability

YES 83¢NO 17¢

recent price

-6¢ over the window

-6¢

24h change

—

24h volume

$27K

total volume

Jul 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

No detector alerts on this market in the last 24 hours — quiet tape.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.