Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster? — live odds

Part of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14· see all 7 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?" is trading at a 10% implied probability, with YES at 10¢ and NO at 90¢. $13K has changed hands so far, $551 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by July 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

10%

implied probability

YES 10¢NO 90¢

recent price

+2¢ over the window

+2¢

24h change

$551

24h volume

$13K

total volume

Jul 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±29.6¢ swing band
3d ago
Odds swing
77¢ → 0¢ (-76.9¢ in 15 min)
9d ago
High volatility
±36¢ swing band
9d ago
Odds swing
4¢ → 70¢ (+66¢ in 15 min)
9d ago
High volatility
±29.5¢ swing band
9d ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 9¢ (+8.9¢ in 15 min)
13d ago
High volatility
±19.2¢ swing band
13d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.