Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown? — live odds

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship upper stage using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks instead of attempting an ocean splashdown, this market will resolve to “No.” This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.