Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? — live odds
10%
implied probability
recent price
0¢ over the window
0¢
24h change
—
24h volume
$65K
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 13d ago
High volatility
±8.9¢ swing band
- 13d ago
Odds swing
0¢ → 76¢ (+75.7¢ in 15 min)
- 13d ago
High volatility
±17.9¢ swing band
- 13d ago
Odds swing
62¢ → 90¢ (+27.7¢ in 15 min)
- 13d ago
High volatility
±33.3¢ swing band
- 21d ago
High volatility
±39.2¢ swing band
- 21d ago
High volatility
±20.6¢ swing band
- 21d ago
High volatility
±40.7¢ swing band
- 21d ago
Odds swing
84¢ → 0¢ (-83.2¢ in 15 min)
- 21d ago
High volatility
±24.1¢ swing band
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 10¢ and NO at 90¢, an implied probability of 10% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$65K has been traded in total, — of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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