Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — live odds

Part of Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?· see all 7 outcomes →📲 Open in app

31%

implied probability

YES 31¢NO 70¢

recent price

-1¢ over the window

-1¢

24h change

$597

24h volume

$189K

total volume

Dec 31, 2026

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±27.9¢ swing band
32d ago
Odds swing
26¢ → 41¢ (+15¢ in 15 min)
32d ago
High volatility
±36.2¢ swing band
32d ago
Odds swing
41¢ → 98¢ (+57¢ in 15 min)
32d ago
High volatility
±29.1¢ swing band
32d ago
Odds swing
11¢ → 41¢ (+30¢ in 15 min)
32d ago
High volatility
±18.6¢ swing band
32d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.