Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — live odds

Part of Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?· see all 7 outcomes →📲 Open in app

"Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" is trading at a 46% implied probability, with YES at 46¢ and NO at 54¢. $16K has changed hands so far, $426 of it in the past 24 hours, and the market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027. PolyWatch tracks every odds move, whale trade and volume spike on this science market in real time.

46%

implied probability

YES 46¢NO 54¢

recent price

0¢ over the window

0¢

24h change

$426

24h volume

$16K

total volume

Jan 1, 2027

resolves

Radar activity on this market

Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.

High volatility
±19.6¢ swing band
2d ago
Odds swing
75¢ → 3¢ (-72¢ in 15 min)
2d ago
High volatility
±38.2¢ swing band
2d ago
High volatility
±12.2¢ swing band
2d ago
conviction signal
16d ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.21¢ vs 0.0676¢ normal
16d ago
High volatility
±6.7¢ swing band
16d ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.25¢ vs 0.058¢ normal
16d ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.17¢ vs 0.0521¢ normal
16d ago
Spread blowout
spread 0.17¢ vs 0.0459¢ normal
16d ago

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.