Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? — live odds
27%
implied probability
recent price
-6¢ over the window
-6¢
24h change
$63
24h volume
$212K
total volume
Dec 31, 2026
resolves
Radar activity on this market
Recent signals from PolyWatch's detectors watching this market 24/7.
- 10d ago
High volatility
±11.7¢ swing band
- 10d ago
Odds swing
99¢ → 65¢ (-34¢ in 15 min)
- 10d ago
High volatility
±28.7¢ swing band
- 10d ago
Odds swing
3¢ → 24¢ (+21¢ in 15 min)
- 10d ago
High volatility
±21.3¢ swing band
- 10d ago
Odds swing
18¢ → 98¢ (+80¢ in 15 min)
- 22d ago
High volatility
±26¢ swing band
- 22d ago
Odds swing
66¢ → 22¢ (-44¢ in 15 min)
- 22d ago
High volatility
±20.7¢ swing band
- 22d ago
Odds swing
49¢ → 1¢ (-48¢ in 15 min)
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Quick answers
What are the current odds of "Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?"?
The market currently prices YES at 27¢ and NO at 73¢, an implied probability of 27% that the answer is yes.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
How much has been traded on this market?
$212K has been traded in total, $63 of it in the last 24 hours.
Prices as of . Informational only — PolyWatch is read-only analytics, not financial advice.
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