TL;DR
- 🐋 $156K whale sell hits Hormuz market — price follows 99¢
- Clarity Act odds drop 50¢ to 25¢
- XRP $1.30 odds jump 44.8¢ to 90.8¢
📈 The big moves
| Market | Move | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | ▼ -50¢ | 25¢ (25%) |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in August? | ▼ -48.5¢ | 20¢ (19.55%) |
| Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on August 26? | ▲ +44.8¢ | 91¢ (90.8%) |
| Will Team Spirit Win the CS2 EWC 2026? | ▲ +37.5¢ | 50¢ (49.5%) |
The "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" market saw a substantial 50¢ drop, repricing the likelihood of the bill passing to 25%. This market will resolve by year-end, reflecting legislative progress or setbacks. Understanding these shifts requires a sharp read of market dynamics, as detailed in our guide on how to read Polymarket like a pro.
🐋 Whale watch
Significant whale activity was noted across several markets. The "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?" market experienced a large SELL of $156,423.90, which drove the price down by 99.2¢. Another substantial SELL of $62,230.73 in the same market caused a further 99.4¢ price impact, indicating a strong market reaction to these trades.
Conversely, the "Fed rate hike in 2026?" market saw a BUY of $77,472.84, leading to a 3.0¢ price increase. For those tracking broader economic indicators, these movements are key for Fed and macro odds. Meanwhile, a BUY of $60,015.43 in the "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" market moved the price 97.7¢ against the trade, suggesting the market absorbed the volume without following. A separate BUY of $46,159.38 in "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" resulted in a 35.0¢ price increase, with the price following the trade. Keeping an eye on these large positions is crucial, and our whale watching guide offers more insights.
📊 Volume spikes
Today's trading also featured several notable volume spikes:
- Will Solana reach $160 in August?: $291.70, 10.1× average
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: $750.00, 14.9× average
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?: $50.00, 20.7× average
These markets saw trading multiples significantly above their daily averages, pointing to heightened interest and activity.
🗓️ Resolving soon
Several markets are slated to resolve in the next 48 hours. The political market "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?" is settling by August 23, with various esports outcomes like "Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs" and "LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group" concluding today, August 22.
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